Back on November 28, 2010 the Packers traveled to Atlanta for a game that figured to decide who would go on to earn the top spot in the NFC. With this would come home field throughout the playoffs and a first round bye. QB Aaron Rodgers fumbled at the goal line and the Falcons recovered in the end zone and then responded with an 80 yard touchdown drive. Trailing 17-10 in the final quarter, Rodgers, who had a huge day (26-35, 344 yards and a TD both passing and rushing) led a 16 play 90 yard drive to tie the game with 56 seconds left. He converted two fourth downs on the drive, including the touchdown to Jordy Nelson. The Falcons, behind Matt Ryan, who had a good day of his own (24-28, 198 yards, 1 TD) drove down the field after a 40 yard kickoff return by Eric Weems and Matt Bryant kicked the game winning FG to give the Atlanta the victory.
This Atlanta Falcon team is good, damn good. They move the ball with unrelenting efficiency, perfectly content to take what a team gives them. The Defense keeps teams out of the end zone. They don't do anything flashy but they do everything well. They are methodical, disciplined, and resourceful. They don't get the acclaim they deserve. They earned the home field, the bye, and will be rested and ready.
Coach Mike Smith has led the Falcons to a 13-3 record. How and why are they so good? They're fundamentally sound, all across the board and you have to beat them: they won't beat themselves. It is tough to beat a team like that. They have balance on Offense, no offensive line starter has missed a game this season, Michael Turner rushed for 1371 yards and 12 touchdowns and Roddy White caught 115 passes for 1389 yards and 10 touchdowns. They have a sound structure and scheme on defense and don't give up the big play. The have a special team's ace in Weems and an accurate kicker in Matt Bryant. It's a winning formula. The reason Atlanta beat Green Bay was because they made fewer mistakes. With Matt Ryan at quarterback, Atlanta is 20-2 at the Georgia dome. They could certainly do it again.
The key for the Green Bay Packers to beat this team is to match them in playing fundamentally sound and contain that running game. Keep Michael Turner under 100 yards and put the Falcons in passing situations and don't let Roddy White beat you. Veteran Tight End Tony Gonzalez will get a lot of balls thrown his way but it is easier to catch him than White if they get into the open field. The Falcons are not unbeatable. They lost three games, including one to the same Philadelphia team that the Packers just beat. Green Bay will be looking for a bit of revenge but mostly just to take the next step towards the NFC Championship. The Packers are hot at the right time!!! It is not the teams that play the best overall that win championships in the NFL recently, it is the teams that play their best football in January. They have a real confidence these days and match up well against Atlanta.
While not having the balance that Atlanta does the Packers have found some with the emergence of RB James Starks. He will give the play-action pass a real chance to work so look for Aaron Rodgers to use that on the opening drive and try to hit Greg Jennings or Donald Driver for a quick score. Getting ahead early is the key as Atlanta could be a little rusty after the well deserved bye week.
If the Falcons win this game they are almost sure to beat the Seahawks or Bears in the NFC Championship in the Georgia Dome. If the Packers win it they go on the road for the title game. That would be nothing new for them so in either case I would expect the winner of Packers at Falcons to wind up in Superbowl XLV.
Defense is what gives the Packers the edge in this game. Clay Matthews, Charles Woodson, BJ Raji, and Tramon Williams lead a squad that gave up the second fewest points in the league this season. I think Aaron Rodgers wins this game late after a hard fought contest with lead changes and a whole lot of great action. Enjoy it everyone! My prediction is no turnovers by the Packers this time allowing them to have success. Green Bay 24 Atlanta 20.
This should definitely be a good game. Unfortunately, Starks will not be as big a surprise to the Falcons as he was to the Eagles since Atlanta has had a chance to review the game footage. Starks still gives the Packers the best RB on 1st and 2nd downs, as long as GB doesn't give up on the running game. Both Rodgers and Ryan are still somewhat inexperienced in playoff games, so this matchup will be a big test for them. I agree that whoever wins this game will be in the Super Bowl; hopefully they can give a good fight to the AFC representative in that big game.
ReplyDeleteGuys, if this is what we are all about we need to change the "unbiased sports coverage" slogan. I could point to countless factors, including an NFL issued appology, for the first Packers vs. Vikings game. Bottom line, one team won, the other team lost.
ReplyDeleteIt's amazing how good teams make other teams look bad. I love how Packer fans always say "We didn't play our best game against Atlanta..." If you're going to make that argument in losses, you need to also see how teams played against you in losses. There were many close wins this season for Green Bay. It's always one way through the eyes of Packer fans though. Yes, you played Atlanta close. NEWS FLASH, YOU LOST THE GAME!!! I look for Atlanta to make sure this meeting isn't as close. They will expose weaknesses in the Packers defense because of their balance on offense. Falcons 31 Packers 20
I'm so nervous for this game, you'd think I'd be playing in it. I didn't get to see a lot of the Falcons this year, including their last meeting with the Pack (damn you OKC Fox affiliate) but this has the makings of a close game. I'd feel a little better about this if the Pack scored more points against their last two opponents...
ReplyDeletePaul if you really feel like my article was uneven then I will stop doing this blog (if the Packers lose) but if I am right then you better excuse yourself. We really should win by 10 or more but I did not go there.
ReplyDeleteI really feel like I was unbiased and pointed out reasons why both teams could win or lose. I would think part of the fun of this blog could be differing opinions but whatever.
I am no more biased in the Packers favor than the three of you are against the Packers!
Let's see how the game goes.
I just wanted to say thanks for your opinions Jeremy and Kristin, its good to get more people involved with this blog!
ReplyDeleteTrescher I think the blog was really well done except you are naturally a little more biased to the Packers. I think the only thing we can do as we go forward is have someone who isn't a fan do the blog. Jamie can do Packers, Paul can do Chiefs and so on. I just think we are all a little biased to our teams.
Also Trescher why do you think you should win by more than 10? What gives you any idea that they will do this? They barely beat the Eagles and they lost to the Falcons! I think it'll be a close game but I think the Falcons pull it out at the end.
None of you guys should ever write about the Packers because you are all way too bias against them!
ReplyDeleteJeremy and Kristin:
ReplyDeleteThanks for your opinions and it looks like we had nothing to worry about.
How about those Packers? AWESOME!!!